Blog Catalog

Monday, June 27, 2011

Financial futures (bet on gold right now?, etc.)

There are a few financial things that seem unavoidable in the near future. The first is that a lot of international finance quarters see Greece as unequivocally unable to avoid default on their credit sometime later this year. Mike Sedlock at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis is one of them. (See link below). Of course, you do have to keep in mind he's pretty negative on national and international economies and has been for at least a few years. That said, he was dead right on AIG and their meltdown, months before it hit the papers you and I read. What he says frequently has some good hard data and reasoning behind it. So if this should happen--Greece defaults--as is predicted and expected, there is a very real and strong likelihood that they will also have to bail on the Euro. If that happens and they do leave the Euro, it will weaken that currency mightily. From there it's anyone's guess as to what happens with Spain's, Italy's and Portugal's debts and status with the EU and Euro. What will this mean? With a far-weaker Euro, the dollar will be stronger, for one. Secondly, It seems certain people will also buy a lot more gold, in a short term run-up, in an effort to "buy safety and security". As for oil? Who knows? It seems this might spell lower costs and prices in the short term, what with the dollar getting stronger but really, with oil, there are so many factors and variables, it's anyone's guess except to say, in the long run, look for ever-higher oil prices, likely, eventually. That is, unless the entire world economy collapses. And that, I hope, is just a cynical joke and not a real possibility. As with all things financial, we all have to just stay tuned. Links: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-near-90-as-dollar-gains-apf-3448414465.html;_ylt=As_3xl2mzK8o8UrAPVdcQqy7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1bDlycWlnBHBvcwM2BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNvaWxuZWFyOTBhc2Q-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=; http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113012/germany-euro-marketwatch;_ylt=AqFunOsM3xqetmv6BRc0XvW7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2cHRnNjJkBHBvcwMxMgRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZ2VybWFuc2JlY29t?mod=bb-budgeting%20%20&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=; http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/; http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/06/expect-chaos.html

No comments: