There seems to be a lot going on in the world of oil, news-wise, today.
First there's this:
WikiLeaks: Saudis running out of oil
By Brett Michael Dykes
The latest startling revelation to come via documents leaked to Julian Assange's muckraking website and published by The Guardian is should give pause to every suburban SUV-driver: U.S. officials think Saudi Arabia is overpromising on its capacity to supply oil to a fuel-thirsty world. That sets up a scenario, the documents show, whereby the Saudis could dramatically underdeliver on output by as soon as next year, sending fuel prices soaring.
The cables detail a meeting between a U.S. diplomat and Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration for Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, in November 2007. Husseini told the American official that the Saudis are unlikely to keep to their target oil output of 12.5 million barrels per day output in order to keep prices stable. Husseini also indicated that Saudi producers are likely to hit "peak oil"--the point at which global output hit its high mark--as early as 2012. That means, in essence, that it will be all downhill from there for the enormous Saudi oil industry.
"According to al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray," one of the cables reads. "While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered."
And while not that many people here in the States are concerned about or for the Saudis and their oil (except the oil companies, of course), what needs to be said is that for the US and the world, any decrease in what they can give in oil supply needs to be offset nearly perfectly by other energy sources so the world economies can hum safely, calmly and quietly while we transition to those other sources.
Next up and lastly today is this little nugget:
New drilling method opens vast oil fields in US
By Jonathan Fahey, AP Energy Writer
A new drilling technique is opening up vast fields of previously out-of-reach oil in the western United States, helping reverse a two-decade decline in domestic production of crude.
Companies are investing billions of dollars to get at oil deposits scattered across North Dakota, Colorado, Texas and California. By 2015, oil executives and analysts say, the new fields could yield as much as 2 million barrels of oil a day — more than the entire Gulf of Mexico produces now.
This new drilling is expected to raise U.S. production by at least 20 percent over the next five years. And within 10 years, it could help reduce oil imports by more than half, advancing a goal that has long eluded policymakers.
"That's a significant contribution to energy security," says Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Credit Suisse.
The thing is, we're going to have to bring the big, unwieldy US energy-gobbling machine in for a safe landing, transferring from Saudi oil and other fossil fuels, into a) possibly our own oil sources for a time and then, finally into b) renewable, clean energy sources like solar with solar panels and photovoltaic cells, as I've written here before. Hopefully this drilling out West can be done with minimal damage to the environment.
It's going to take a lot of work, resources and intelligence to do it, that's for sure.
Links: http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110209/ts_yblog_thelookout/wikileaks-saudis-running-out-of-oil
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110209/ap_on_re_us/us_shale_oil
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4 comments:
"WikiLeaks: Saudis running out of oil
" They and the rest of OPEC had agreed to daily production quotas as a ratio of available reserves. To increase output, all you have to do is announce your reserves have magically increased...and do so without verification.
Global energy demands will not be met long term by finding more oil. They will need to be addressed by a portfolio of alternate sources/resources. We may have already hit global peak oil.
I couldn't agree more, rbbrfish--the key is switching to clean, renewable energy, as much dependent on the sun as possible, I believe.
However, I would also say that it could help us internally, and while we're in transition to clean and renewable energy sources, that it makes more sense to take and use our own oil, from here in the States, rather than sending yet more billions to the Middle East.
We need to get off fossil fuels as quickly as possible, that's the bottom line.
The Middle East is a concern on a number of levels: puppet governments, unfriendly regimes, religious fanatics that feel we are literally draining the "life blood" of their country and so on. Our presence there is a problem. We must also remember that the majority of oil used in the US is imported and that these are the top nations for that: CANADA, MEXICO, SAUDI ARABIA,and VENEZUELA...not just the Middle East. Not only an alternative energy program, but conservation are needed. And though not in disagreement that we should keep our dollars here, I am in doubt as to the efficacy of drilling here. The expenditures should be used toward development of future resources and not back into extant business models.
Like you, I am far more convinced we need to get off oil and coal and as soon as possible and get on with renewable, clean sources as fast as possible. I only mention this drilling in the States because it's supposed to be some new, good, productive technology. If that can help us transition to the newer, cleaner sources, then so much the better but our eyes really need to be fixed on the new energy sources, I agree.
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