If This Coronavirus Hasn't Concerned You Yet, To Date, This Could. Maybe Should

Wonder why the Dow and markets keep sinking, crashing, day after day for the last few weeks?

This might be it.

Coronavirus could force the world into an unprecedented depression

A bit from the article:

In its latest repricing of the economy, the market sees the now-expected global recession caused by the coronavirus outbreak morphing into an economic depression unlike any the world has seen in generations.

The big picture: Bankers and traders are looking to sell everything that isn't nailed down to boost cash positions and hunker down for the worst.

What they're saying:

• JPMorgan wrote down its expectations for global GDP to -1.1% in 2020, expecting the world's economic growth will reverse for the full year, including a second quarter contraction of -14% in the U.S. and -22% in the eurozone.
• Deutsche Bank economists foresee a "severe global recession occurring in the first half of 2020 ... quarterly declines in GDP growth we anticipate substantially exceed anything previously recorded going back to at least World War II."
• Both banks noted their forecasts are based on governments putting in place massive, yet-to-be-passed fiscal stimulus programs and fairly swift containment of the outbreak.
• "It is easy to imagine a still worse outcome," DB analysts, led by head of economics research Peter Hooper and seven chief economists, wrote.

The most dire warning came from Pershing Square Capital Management CEO Bill Ackman, who went on CNBC to beg President Trump to shut down the U.S. economy for 30 days and put the country in a nationwide lockdown.

"Until a vaccine is manufactured, distributed and injected we will go through a Depression-era period in the country," Ackman said. "America will end as we know it unless we take this option."

And here I was just anxious about the conornavirus.

Silly me.

Thank goodness we have good, strong leadership coming out of the White House and this Republican Party President and his administration.

Right?

Link:

The coronavirus economic pain in the U.S. has begun

Republicans Getting Crafty. And Desperate

Big news out today. 

G.O.P. Plans to Drop Presidential Primaries in 4 States to Impede Trump Challengers

Republicans in at least 4 states are dropping Presidential primaries leading up to next year's election so no one can even challenge Trump.

This is pretty fascinating.

What this means is that they are doubling down on Trump. They're solidly backing The Orange One.

 
This has a distinctly high possibility of making the Democratic Party's chances even stronger. They're backing him to the hilt. Meanwhile, his approval ratings, nationally, with all Americans, are at least weak, now, and that's with, so far, a reasonably strong economy. 

DONALD TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING SLIDES TO 36%, THE LOWEST IT'S BEEN SINCE JANUARY

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare Him

Fox News poll: Trump disapproval rises to near record

And already, not only are economists predicting strong likelihood of a recession but today's jobs report showed weakness.

US jobs report August 2019: 130,000 jobs vs. 150,000 expected

With all this and the knowledge, the very sure knowledge, that Donald J. Trump is not a man of nuance or thought or careful consideration, if things should get tougher for him in the coming election and campaign, we will most surely be witness to still more and further emotional, rambling, attacking, incoherent episodes, as we've already witnessed.

Finally, not to be done there, there are these lovelies taking place. First, Trump attacks his own people, his own political party, his only support, last July, because, well, he's Donald Trump.

Trump ambushes Republicans with attacks on minority congresswomen

Then, far more recently, at least some Republicans, anyway, show some sense.

Republican Group Attacks Trump, McConnell In New Ad

Ever since the 2016 Presidential election campaign, nothing has been predictable, that's for sure. It seems, however, now, we do have things going our way, the way of and more for the people.

All that said.... we must TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED.  We must vote! And help get out the vote!

GO BLUE!

Why we so desperately need a jobs/infrastructure bill from this Congress

"The global economy is more precarious right now than it's been since 2008. China's growth is slowing precipitously, Europe is on the very of recession or deflation, Japan is barely growing, and the United States cannot maintain sufficient aggregate demand without a larger and more buoyant middle class. Interest rates are rock-bottom. Under these circumstances, you might expect governments to borrow more to stimulate their economies. But Germany in the eurozone, and Republicans in the U.S., are still insisting on austerity." 

--Robert Reich

Instead, there is the desire on the part of one political party, quite frankly, the Republicans, to put their own party and their success ahead of that of the nation, people and economy be damned. 

We all know that. 

Why else would they totally avoid an infrastructure/jobs bill from this or the last Congress when the American people need the jobs? the infrastructure needs the updating and improving and the economy needs the boost? They don't want this president or his political party to gain any "points" or to be perceived as having any success so screw you, America.

Blame the economy on this President?

That's what I'm talkin' 'bout.

Conservative, Right Wing, Republican Bill Kristol on this President--and Mitt Romney

"I think the biggest disaster for America in the 21st century was fighting two wars on a credit card. We could suck up several thousand killed in a terrorist attack (no offense to those who lost a loved one) but the economic damage of kicking multi-trillion dollar wars into Barack Obama's lap (and then blaming him for the deficits!) is profound and will resound for many more years. Do we want to put the geniuses responsible for this economic crime back in power?" --Brian Rock (friend)

Links: http://www.salon.com/2012/09/24/kristol_obama_did_pretty_well_with_financial_meltdown/

Great Depression coincidences

I've been thinking of this for some time.

We have the worst economy in 80 years, since the 2008 financial collapse (thank you, Wall Street) so it's the worst downturn since the 30's, since the Great Depression. They've called this one a few things like the "Great Recession" and the "Great Mancession" since so many men, proportionately, lost their jobs. It's even been referred to as the "Second Great Depression."

And now?

Now, the worst drought and heat wave since the 30's, at the same time. (See links below).

What are the odds?

1934 and 1936, specificially, were the worst drought and heat years of that time.

I tell you, the similarities and attributes these 2 economic downturns share are pretty uncanny.

Here's hoping it gets no worse. Let's hope there are no worse bread lines, like those of the 30's, etc., etc.

I don't think we're as tough now as those people were then. We aren't as close to poverty, as a group, as a nation, as a people, as they were then.

We aren't good at living without, I suspect.

Links: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48076883/ns/us_news-the_new_york_times/

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/05/12579687-drought-hits-56-percent-of-continental-us-significant-toll-on-crops?lite

Breaking news--on Japanese markets

BREAKING -- Tokyo Stock Market Opens at 28-year LOW amid global concerns over economy.

Source: Veracity Stew

Heads up, kiddies--dump those stocks now.

Or as soon as possible.

That 274+ points we lost Friday may look good by end of day.

Wishing us all good luck.

KC in Wall Street Journal today

There's an article in The Wall Street Journal today, describing the current national commercial office space situation in the country. It uses our own City Center Square as an example as it has about a 50% occupancy rate at present: Trouble Is Brewing for Office Market

The coverage is brief in the article: "A 660,000 square-foot office building in downtown Kansas City, Mo., is trying to renegotiate its $40 million mortgage with creditors, according to Trepp. The property's vacancy rose to 48% in 2010 when a major tenant, Dickinson Financial Corp. didn't renew its lease.: The sky isn't falling but it is cloudy, at least, it seems. As if we didn't know that. Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203436904577153003477512394.html?mod=residential_real_estate

Click on picture for easier reading.

Thank you, Calvin, George. Now, go away.

Two telling articles on China today

Check out these two today from Yahoo! News, the AP and AFP. First this: GM's China sales hit record for August. And then this: European group: China imposing new market barriers. Not good. Not good at all. In the midst of worldwide recessions and worse, this is the kind of thing that starts world wars. Fortunately, China and the US need each other far too much. Let's hope that always holds. Links: http://news.yahoo.com/gms-china-sales-hit-record-august-075116832.html; http://news.yahoo.com/european-group-china-imposing-market-barriers-042147073.html

Something to keep in mind as the economy seems to get worse

Riots in Greece and across Europe. Can it happen here? Food for thought: "If inequality continues to increase relentlessly, it seems likely that major social disruptions are inevitable. What people should keep in mind is that the U.S. has the weakest social safety net of any advanced country." --"Martin Ford, Founder, Silicon Valley-based software development firm. Links: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/martin-ford/could-we-have-civil-unres_b_906478.html; http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/raging-inequality-may-cause-unrest-and-violence/

In case you missed it on Social Security

Just out today:

Social Security fund slides into permanent deficit


By Stephen Ohlemacher, Associated Press
Thu Jan 27, 11:18 am ET

WASHINGTON – Social Security's finances are getting worse as the economy struggles to recover and millions of baby boomers stand at the brink of retirement.
New congressional projections show Social Security running deficits every year until its trust funds are eventually drained in about 2037.
This year alone, Social Security is projected to collect $45 billion less in payroll taxes than it pays out in retirement, disability and survivor benefits, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday. That figure swells to $130 billion when a new one-year cut in payroll taxes is included, though Congress has promised to repay any lost revenue from the tax cut.
The massive retirement program has been feeling the effects of a struggling economy for several years. The program first went into deficit last year — the first deficit since it was last overhauled in the 1980s. But CBO said last year that Social Security would post surpluses for a few more years before permanently slipping into deficits in 2016.

Something has to be done with this sucker.  Our representatives need to stop being such cowards and address it.

And we need to let them, too.

We've known for decades this needs solutions.  We've also known that the earlier we fix it, the easier, relatively, and smaller the fixes will be required.  Alternately, the longer we wait and do nothing, the bigger and more difficult the solutions will need to be.

Washington?  You listening?

Link to original post:  http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110127/ap_on_re_us/us_social_security

A silver lining to this economic cloud?

Just so we're not that gloomy, there's this:

It’s a perennial: nearly every recession leads pundits to proclaim that the job market is facing structural challenges, and that higher unemployment is here to stay. During the 1981-82 recession, now seen as a classic cyclical recession, the economist Barry Bluestone warned that, as a result of structural issues, there might not be “much recovery in terms of overall employment in the United States.” Yet, by 1984, unemployment was back to where it had been before recession hit. A 1964 survey of economists found that more than half believed structural issues were playing a significant role in limiting the number of jobs; three years later, unemployment was below four per cent. And, during the Great Depression, even F.D.R. thought that unemployment might well be stuck at a permanently higher level. Recessions are, among other things, crises of confidence, and one manifestation of lack of confidence is the conviction that this time we’re not going to be able to climb our way out.   --James Suroweicki, The New Yorker Magazine

  
So it may not be "the end of the world as we know it", folks.  Let's let calmer heads prevail.

Link to original post:  http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/01/03/110103ta_talk_surowiecki

You think it's good news... and then, wham

First you see the headline: Unemployment rate falls in 39 states in June Then you read the first line in the article: The unemployment rate fell in most states in June, mainly because more people gave up searching for work and were no longer counted. Dang. There went that hope thing. Link to original post: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100720/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_state_unemployment

Quote of the day--guns vs. butter

"Why is nobody talking about the Afghanistan adventure as a cause of our plunging recession? Or at least citing the 30-year-old endless war as a major contributory factor in wasting our money to "nation-build" in the Hindu Kush while our own country falls to pieces on food stamps, foreclosures and child poverty – one in five kids – that would put the world's poorest nations to shame?" --Clancy Sigal, from The Guardian, "America: Hooked on War and Getting Poorer" Link here: http://www.alternet.org/economy/147567/america:_hooked_on_war_and_getting_poorer/

Kansas City in the news

Our fair city came up in the news this afternoon, in a couple different ways.

In the first one I saw, it called us out for our school district shrinking. It had some big, tragic headline about how desperate we are--"Kansas City Schools Crisis" was the headline.

I beg to differ.

From the outside, maybe this looks and seems desperate and crazy but for those of us looking on, this shrinking of the KCMO School District is just the obvious thing we need to do right now. In a district that used to have 75,000 students, we now have about 16,000 so close schools we must.

Get over it.

Then, in the 2nd article about KCMO , it pointed out how we rank tenth, nationally, for not doing too badly in comparison to other cities regarding this worst recession in 80 years.

So good on us, eh?

Finally, not about Kansas City at all, there was an article about Detroit, Michigan and their problems.

Think we have it bad?

Think again.

The leaders of Detroit have proposed bulldozing up to one quarter of the city, in an effort to save it.

Detroit is collapsing from within. (Thanks, General Motors, for outsourcing all those jobs!).

We, by sharp contrast, while not exactly soaring, are nowhere close to that bad a shape.

I say again, too, that, come 2011, when the downtown Kauffman Center for the Performing Arts opens, the nation will come calling on us and we'll look pretty good, by comparison to a lot of other places.

Cheer up.

It could be a lot worse, for sure.

That's what I'm talkin' 'bout...

 

The above picture is one of the best and most glaring examples of what I've written about here a few times. And that is, The Kansas City Star's inability--or lack of desire or something--to write anything penetrating--and yes, potentially negative--about the state of the area's real estate, with some few, rare exceptions.

I assume the realtors have them by the throat or something.

I thought one of the most important jobs the local newspaper would be to keep the area readers and inhabitants informed on the state of one of our most important facets of our economy--that is, both the commercial and residential real estate markets.

Silly me.

The above condominium building was created in the last year or two but to this day has remained vacant. It's in a very desirable area, too, overlooking Mill Creek Park, just off the Country Club Plaza, and is a beautiful facility.

And if it were the only one--or just one of few in the area--I could understand overlooking it.

But the fact is, there is a great number of these condominiums available in the area.

And you wouldn't know it by reading the local paper.

Commercial real estate? Especially retail?

Same thing.

I would think there are more stories there.

They did have one article, a couple days ago on foreclosure notice rates in the city compared to others, nationwide and another on discounts home buyers were getting on properties--the "pretty" news, for buyers--but that's nearly it.

And sure, they'll report the opening of a new store now and again, but give the overall, big picture on real estate, especially now, when we're in a downturn?

Not really.

Not if you read The Kansas City Star.

Is this the only way we can legislate now?

Dum-dum legislation seems to be the only thing the Obama Administration can come up with right now.

First, it's been "leaked out" from the White House that the President is going to recommend we freeze Federal spending for the next 3 years, in an effort to keep deficits and spending down.

This seems pretty easy to pass and sure to please the opposing Party, if only because it's throwing them an economic "bone", so to speak.

The American people have been shown in polls to be against these big deficits we're running up so this is what what they came up with.

Whatever.

There are people chiming in on it, for and against. Some say it will help keep deficits down. Others say we shouldn't try to keep spending down too much, since we're in a deep recession.

We'll find out who's right, soon enough.

The other easy government we were given came yesterday when the President and White House got a law to make texting for commercial vehicles illegal.

Talk about an easy one.

Who could be against this?

We're in 2 wars and the worst recession in 80 years and this is the legislation we get from our government.

I'm still a supporter of this President, to be sure, but I hope we're doing what we can be doing on all the right things.

It feels like Nero is fiddling sometimes, to me.

Let's put the kabosh to this

I could hardly believe what I read today.

I am some kind of naive.

Check this out--Congress, right now, is seriously considering purchasing 8 new corporate-style jets for itself.

In the midst of the largest budget deficit we've ever had as a country.

In the middle of the deepest recession in the last 70 years.

Can you imagine Congress trying to pull this kind of thing off in the middle of the Great Depression? There's no way they'd have even attempted such a thing.

What chutzpah.

I immediately wrote my two Senators and, for once, didn't ask them to do the right thing, I told them to vote against this and to kill it.

Over one-half billion dollars for 8 planes.

It's like I said earlier, it's not as though, because of this purchase, they'd race to solve our problems any quicker, that's for sure.

And this is on top of the "automatic pay raise" they gave themselves not long ago.

Write your Senators.

Now.

Link to story:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124960404730212955.html

More proof of a really down economy

This headline just came off my email, this Friday afternoon, from the Kansas City Business Journal:

Kansas City-area riverboat casinos draw less June revenue, fewer customers

And that, my friends, represents one of the strongest indications yet of how bad our economy is right now.

Sure, restaurant and other entertainment is down and has been for months but this is the first time, to my knowledge, that people are going to the casinos less and gambling away less money.

It isn't because they choose to save this money instead, I don't think, though the one silver lining of this terrible downturn is that the personal savings rate right now is up around 6 to 7%.

I believe less people are going to casinos and gambling because the money just isn't there--people don't have it at home. And they sure aren't going to get credit for it, not in this situation.

It's dark out there folks.

It's dark and what was the old sunshine isn't coming back. Don't look for it.

Links to stories:
http://kansascity.bizjournals.com/kansascity/stories/2009/07/06/daily46.html?ed=2009-07-10&ana=e_du_pap
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aome1_t5Z5y8