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Here is good news
Survey shows political winds shifting as GOP trails in county's leadership races
By ALAN BERNSTEIN
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Oct. 25, 2008, 11:17PM
Democrats have reclaimed the voting advantage they lost 14 years ago in elections for Harris County offices, according to a poll conducted for the Houston Chronicle. But Republican County Judge Ed Emmett appears to be swimming strongly against the tide.
Voters favored Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by 7 percentage points in elections for county leadership jobs, except in the county judge's race, where Emmett has a 13-point lead over Democrat David Mincberg, according to the survey. Sixteen percent of the respondents were undecided or said they lean toward neither party's entry.
The number 7 also popped up specifically in the race for district attorney; Democrat C.O. Bradford ran 7 percentage points ahead of Republican Pat Lykos in the poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday as early voting began for the Nov. 4 election.
As the Chronicle reported Saturday, the poll by Zogby International shows Democrats ahead by the identical gap, 7 percentage points, in the presidential and U.S. Senate races among county voters.
The pattern suggests that the Democratic identity has become more popular here in the last two years and/or that Barack Obama's lead in the national presidential race is filtering down to local elections, pollster John Zogby said.
"It's about the party, and it's about the (presidential nominee) characters," he said.
The results point to Nov. 4 becoming the first transitional election in Harris County since 1994, when Republican challengers swept Democratic administrators and judges from their jobs as the "Republican revolution" led by then-U.S. Rep. Newt Gingrich captured the majority in Congress.
County leadership races on the ballot are for county judge, DA, sheriff, tax assessor-collector, county attorney and district clerk.
There were two exceptions to the local trend.
In the 40 judicial races on the ballot, voters favored Democratic challengers over Republican incumbents by 3.7 percentage points. The finding puts the party's judgeship slates in a statistical tie, because the gap is within the poll's margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
Ike response aided Emmett
Most Republican judges seeking re-election have campaigned as a group, saying they protect people and property through their work in the criminal and civil courts. Democratic candidates for court benches mainly have campaigned individually or as part of the overall Democratic ticket.
Also against the grain, Emmett, the county government executive, has a strong lead, according to the poll.
Emmett, whose public profile was heightened during local governments' relief response to the damage caused by Hurricane Ike, had 46 percent of the vote, compared to 33 percent for Mincberg.
Results in that race ran counter not only to the other countywide races, but also against the way Harris County voters identify with the political parties, according to the poll.
Forty-six percent in the survey said they are Democrats, 38 percent Republicans and the remainder independent.
A Zogby International poll for the Chronicle in February produced the same numbers in response to the party question.
Harris County has the state's largest population and is one of the most ethnically and socially diverse counties in Texas. Immense growth in the area's Hispanic population has helped make the county's voters more receptive to Democratic candidates, according to experts.
In February, though, neither party had the advantage in county leadership races, suggesting that independents and some Democrats favored the Republican ticket then.
Democratic candidates now have pulled ahead as a group, according to the poll, after months in which the two major parties chose their presidential nominees and nation's financial systems stumbled, putting the focus on an issue that voters consider better off in the hands of Democrats.
Tough year for GOP leaders
In county leadership races and specifically in the race for district attorney, the Democratic contenders had robust leads over their Republican opponents among moderate voters and even got 20 percent or more from conservatives, according to the survey.
This year has been troubling for Republicans on the local scene. The campaign season has included the resignation of Republican District Attorney Chuck Rosenthal and controversies about the actions of Sheriff Tommy Thomas and Commissioner Jerry Eversole.
The poll assumes the black and Hispanic populations each will contribute 20 percent of the countywide vote.
Some local experts predict a higher turnout by blacks, citing excitement about Obama's candidacy. They also say Hispanic turnout could be lower than 20 percent, because while the number of Hispanic registered voters keeps climbing, they probably have never voted at that level countywide.
A combined minority turnout above 40 percent could add to the advantage for local Democratic contenders. Eight-five percent of blacks, 60 percent of Asian-Americans, 54 percent of Hispanics and 28 percent of non-Hispanic whites in the survey said they favor Democrats in county leadership elections.
Newly registered voters
Ten percent of the 602 voters surveyed said they registered to vote for the first time this year. The reason most often cited for registering now was "I recently turned 18," the minimum voting age. And among those youngest new voters, the overwhelming majority were Democrat-leaning Hispanics and Asian Americans.
A reason cited less often for registering for the first time was, "I never paid attention to elections before this year." This group strongly favored Republican candidates.
In the overall county survey, 14 percent of voters said they consider a candidate's ethnic background when deciding which contenders to support — a sensitive issue particularly this year because Obama would be the first black president. The 14 percent is on par with national surveys, according to Zogby.
Among the 87 voters who said they consider ethnicity were 56 Democrats, 25 Republicans and six independents. There were 33 Hispanics, 31 whites, 18 blacks, three Asian-Americans and two who classified themselves otherwise.
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